Regional Studies

According to specialist literature, the current development of agglomerations is by large
urban areas evolving by the expansion and structural transition of larger urban zones,
where “the formerly hierarchic division of settlements with a different size and role is
replaced by horizontal cooperation, linking into a network” (Enyedi 2012, p. 17). The
aim of the present paper is to examine, how equal the domestic large cities and their
agglomeration can be considered by their development and competitiveness, and if there
is an economic basis for them to cooperate horizontally in a network in the present case.
The authors use different methodological approaches to examine the development and
competitiveness of cities and their agglomeration, and spatial autocorrelation
circumstances to model the economic base of outlined cooperation.

According to specialist literature, the current development of agglomerations is by large
urban areas evolving by the expansion and structural transition of larger urban zones,
where “the formerly hierarchic division of settlements with a different size and role is
replaced by horizontal cooperation, linking into a network” (Enyedi 2012, p. 17). The
aim of the present paper is to examine, how equal the domestic large cities and their
agglomeration can be considered by their development and competitiveness, and if there
is an economic basis for them to cooperate horizontally in a network in the present case.
The authors use different methodological approaches to examine the development and
competitiveness of cities and their agglomeration, and spatial autocorrelation
circumstances to model the economic base of outlined cooperation.

The paper is concerned with the theoretical and practical approaches to administrative
regionalisation. The authors attempt to present a new methodology, which on one hand is
theoretical and from the other, enables the design of an optimal spatial system in terms of
the demands of the population. This is presented on through the example of Hungarian
districts (the level between municipalities and counties in the administrative system).

This research is concerned with a statistical method that has recently become widespread
in the international literature; although, it is still limited in Hungarian research. The method
is geographically weighted regression (GWR), which is demonstrated through an example
of its application. GWR is a local model that is founded on the basis of regression,
prominently taking into consideration the geographical distance. Since it does not calculate
the global relations of the whole data, but concentrates on the relationship of the dependent
and independent variables locally within a determined search area, it allows consideration
of the spatially varying processes. Simply, GWR is a developed version of the global
regression model, since, through its use, it is possible to take into account the local features
that are hidden by the global approach.

The research paper emphasizes the importance of export from the aspect of economic
development. In the first part, the theoretical background of the regional development
connected to export-led growth is introduced. As a bridge between the theoretical and
empirical part, the territorial sense of export data and economic spaces is highlighted. In
connection to the research, actual domestic research examining spatial differences and
inequalities in Hungary is presented. The reviewed researches (Dusek–Lukács–Rácz
2014, Nemes Nagy–Tagai 2011, Obádovics 2013, Pénzes 2012) concur on the main
territorial features in Hungary: territorial hegemony of the capital, increasing differences
between the capital and rural areas, emergence of the ‘West–East decline’, and varied
development patterns of micro-regions and settlements. Dusek–Lukács–Rácz (2014)
describe the regional disparities in the country on NUTS-2 level, pointing out that Central
Hungary is the most advanced region of Hungary, followed by Western Transdanubia
and Central Transdanubia, and with significant lag, Southern Transdanubia, Southern
Great Plain, Northern Great Plain and Northern Hungary trail the list. In the primary
research, the aim is to explore the conditions of export-led growth in Hungary, and
through an examination of the spatial distribution of the 500 companies with the best
sales performance (TOP 500 list) an attempt is made to demonstrate the reasons for
regional inequalities in Hungary. The other scope of the research is to demonstrate the
concentration of different sectors in NUTS-3 level, as well as highlighting their export
orientation. Furthermore research examines associations between different measures. The
pool of data used for carrying out the research is derived from HVG (Heti Világgazdaság
– a dominant economic weekly review in Hungary) about the first 500 companies with
the best sales performance in 2012 (the TOP 500 companies) and from the Hungarian
Central Statistical Office. Our research findings emphasize the importance of export for
regional development (export-led growth), and resembles the secondary research outcomes
about the development of NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions.

The study examines how the recent economic crisis and the related unfavourable economic
features affect poverty. As economic crisis is usually associated with many economic and
social problems, it tries to determine to what extent it influences poverty. The paper
attempts to prove that economic recession contributes not only to the impoverishment of a
significant section of society, but also increases the depth of poverty significantly. If the
research supports this hypothesis, it is worth examining to what extent one percent
economic growth or economic decline can decrease or increase the rate of the poor and the
depth of poverty. Besides the effect of economic growth on the given area, the paper also
analyses the effect of the economic growth of the neighbouring areas. The initial
hypothesis states that the economic growth of the neighbouring regions can also alleviate
poverty. As for spatial effects, spatial autocorrelation is examined in the average income
level to reveal how the economic growth of the neighbouring areas affects a given region.
The study examines Northern Hungary, one of the most backward regions in Hungary
(based on GDP per capita). Eurostat (2010) reports this region is among the poorest twenty
regions within the European Union (based on GDP per capita PPP, Northern Hungary is
the 259th among the 271 regions of the European Union).

Knowledge of whether, and over what range of output, there are economies or
diseconomies of scale in providing local communal services is an important question from
a theoretical, practical and regional political point of view. The theoretical side of the
question is connected to the primary research regarding the optimal city size. If an optimal
city size can actually be established, then a valid policy argument can be made for fostering
its approximation. However, theoretical considerations are sometimes based on those types
of assumptions, which are often not valid in reality. Therefore, empirical investigations are
essential in this research area.
After a short theoretical overview, the paper initially gives a general outline of previous
controversial empirical evidence on economies of scale regarding community size and the
provision of local communal services. In the second part, the empirical findings are
presented; these concern economies of scale in local communal services based on a large
and detailed database, which consist of almost 300 Hungarian settlements. During the
research, a number of methodological questions have occurred. For example, there are
several solutions for the organisational structure providing local services, from a large
holding to the smaller individual companies. Considering this and some other issues, the
main results suggest that on a community level, there are moderate economies of scale in
water supply, sewage disposal and district heating and a moderate diseconomy of scale in
refuse collection until 5 thousand inhabitants. Above this level there is no connection
between the settlement size and the average cost of services. The results are mainly
consistent with the previous findings: there are economies of scale under a certain
threshold, but after this, unit cost reduction is not feasible. This threshold can be different
in the different types of services.

Spatial lag dependence in a regression model is similar to the inclusion of a serially
autoregressive term for the dependent variable in a time-series context. However, unlike
in the time-series model, the implied covariance structure matrix from the spatial
autoregressive model can have a very counterintuitive and improbable structure. A single
value of spatial autocorrelation parameter can imply a large band of values of pair-wise
correlations among different observations of the dependent variable, when the weight
matrix for the spatial model is specified exogenously. This is illustrated using cigarette
sales data (1963–1992) of 46 US states. It can be seen that that two "close" neighbours can
have very low implied correlations compared to distant neighbours when the weighting
scheme is the first-order contiguity matrix. However, if the weight matrix can capture the
underlying dependence structure of the observations, then this unintuitive behaviour of
implied correlation is corrected to a large extent. From this, the possibility of constructing
the weight matrix (or the overall spatial dependence in the data) that is consistent with the
underlying correlation structure of the dependent variable is explored. The suggested
procedures produced very positive results indicating further research.

In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique north coast (1.600 km away from Maputo and 600 from Dar es Salaam), very important Gas deposits have recently been discovered.
The potential for economic and social development must be well exploited: Three areas for strategic effort have been suggested to benefit from Energy inputs: Agro-food development, Industrial enterprise and Tourism services. They have to be made compatible in environmental and territorial terms to reach sustainability.

Cabo Delgado coast north of Pemba, up to Palma and beyond to the Tanzania border, has a very characteristic wavy coastline protected from rough sea by a parallel set of islands: a peculiar ecosystem with enormous tourist potential. Environment, Tourism and Gas extraction have to be made compatible in the coastline. Inland has to provide for the necessary infrastructures to support capital investment in industry as well as for agro-alimentary production and food processing.

The territorial structure takes form under related parallel gradient lines that work together in a social and productive mechanism. Development might start from the specific points of Palma and Pemba but a clear vision of the overall structure will allow for development of other potential urban settlements, productive and tourist locations in a sustainable long-term framework.

The New Kenya Constitution 2010 starts a process of Devolution by which local county authorities take a greater role on governance. Nairobi Metropolis is now composed of 5 Counties: Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos, Murang’a and Kajiado.

Nairobi is the Central County, the consolidated metropolitan core. Highly urbanized it needs specific responses to urban problems. Those responses, as the development of a Commuter Train service under way (see previous documents in this webpage), will determine the success of the metropolis.

However, the future growth of the metropolis is dependent on the structure and development undertaken in the other counties. Among them Kiambu is the most relevant one as it includes:
- The environmental relevant areas of Kiambu Hills to be protected,
- The core of the Thika Highway metropolitan expansion area to be linearly structured and
- The Athi River plain under the unsustainable sprawl phenomenon to be structured in a TOD approach.

The structure of Nairobi Metropolis is a cross.
The four main urban corridors to Thika, Athi River, Limuru and Ongata Rongai, form a quasi perfect cross dividing Nairobi in four quadrants: North, East, South and West. Every quadrant has a different ecosystem, different directionality, and has to be planned in account of that.

The completion of the mobility structure for Nairobi must have two strategies:
1) The mass public transport: The development of centralities around the commuter stations along the branches of the cross (3) to prioritize rail access to Nairobi Center.
2) The road network: The formation of a consistent mobility network by completion of the short missing links across the existing dominating directionalities of the quadrants (3)
The result will be a homogeneous a resilient (stable equilibrium) mobility network linked to the metropolitan axes of the cross. The axes would be served by the commuter train service for access to the CBD.

The territorial (land-use) evolution of the structure will have two main tendencies:
1) The CBD economic activity expansion southwards, across the actual buffer of the Central Station and in the direction of the airport.
2) The housing land provision in response to the annual growth and need for 2,5 sq. km of new urban land. The infrastructure for that provision would be a reticular metropolitan network to the eastwards flat, featureless and environmentally poor land.

The Nairobi Propositive Analysis proposal to reshape Nairobi Metropolis on first a linear, then later reticular, structure was well accepted in-housed by the several administrative layers of the Kenyatta Government. This has to take shape through the development of the commuter train service, whose rail track layout reflects and coincides with the inner metropolitan structure of Nairobi.

Each station of the commuter train becomes an alternative centrality in the new metropolitan structure of Nairobi able to attract and to foster economic and commercial development, social facilities and housing provision. This decentralized poly-nuclear subsystem will take part of the pressure off of central Nairobi, multiply diverse location accessibilities and ease land prices and traffic congestion.

Development of these centralities (infrastructure investment, land management, social and economic governance of urban units) is the next step in this transformative process.

"Pour le gaz de schiste comme pour d’autres activités, l’acceptabilité sociale s’impose progressivement dans les discours de nombreux acteurs. La notion reste cependant vague, souvent non définie, interprétée et réappropriée de diverses façons : il importe de mieux la définir, tant théoriquement que de façon opératoire, pour poser des repères qui deviendront, peut-être et progressivement, plus stables et partagés.
C’est à cet effort de compréhension et de connaissances que cherche à contribuer la présente étude, qui entend dégager les facteurs permettant une analyse intégrée de l’acceptabilité sociale de la filière du gaz de schiste au Québec dans une perspective de développement territorial. L’étude ne fournit donc pas les « conditions » requises pour assurer la mise en place de la filière, ni une carte des localités où ses activités pourraient être bien accueillies. Elle vise plutôt à avancer une proposition conceptuelle permettant de soutenir de futures analyses en matière d’acceptabilité sociale, d’éclairer les processus et dynamiques sociales à l’œuvre et, plus largement, de mieux comprendre les phénomènes qu’elle recouvre."

Rwanda is leaping ahead with double-digit annual growth figures. Will it be a template for other African countries? Development requires infrastructure, coordinated infrastructure with a long-term vision. Not disaggregated piecemeal shortsighted incrementalist decisions. Rwanda Government is in the right path. This report presents the completion of the National infrastructure policies that are now under way with a long-term integrated vision.

Infrastructures: Rwanda primary backbone and excellent secondary road network will require a new layout, independent from interferences, to achieve full development. The size of the country allows for 30 km interurban connections (IE: Kigali-Muhanga) in the 15-minute range, not 1 hour: a network independent from city centers and urban areas.
Infrastructures must achieve synergies. Main highways, trains and airports have to be synchronized with the urban structure, avoiding dispersion of efforts.

Housing: Expected urban growth will move 2 millions Rwandese to cities in the next 8 years. This will require the production of 70.000 housing units every year, of which 50%, 35.000, in Kigali and 2.500 units each year in each of the 14 secondary urban centers. Houses for the 60-dollar month lower income migrants. Only a small percentage will be provided directly by the private sector to the higher incomes. Direct involvement of the public sector will be required for the production of at least 50% of those figures. With 10.000 USD units in a 5.000 USD/unit serviced land these 35.000 (really) affordable housing units will require an annual finance of 600 million USD: 8% of the GDP and 25% of the National Budget. Can the Rwanda afford it?

Rwanda can neither afford reports that discuss the need for further reports, reports that take 5 years to bring any implementable solution. Rwanda has no time for that. Kigali doubles every 9 years. Every year 35.000 houses are not built, the deficit will grow and the burden put on the future, until that future is at risk. If 35.000 houses a year is a difficult task (now producing less than 9.000) what about 70.000, or 140.000?
Reports should set up straightforward solutions. They should frame and balance the problem in the large context even though quantitative precision is later required to maximize investment efficiency and budgetary accuracy. We embrace reports that take risks being direct and clear, reports that are applicable for policy making and not just for expert discussion. We think those reports are the useful ones for Rwanda. That is our bet.

Россия находится перед этапом модернизации социально-экономической системы. Какие существуют тренды, барьеры и перспективы этого процесса? В работе представлен экономико-географический подход к проблеме. Глава I посвящена теории и опыту модернизаций. В главе II исследуются современные условия в России на основе анализа инвестиционной и инновационной деятельности. В главе III модернизационные процессы рассмотрены на примере Тамбовской области. Автором предложена схема социально-экономической геосистемы; выделены факторы, типы и этапы модернизаций. Проведен анализ крупных инвестиционных проектов и типология регионов по инновационному потенциалу. Предложена концепция инновационной зоны. Выделены барьеры и перспективы развития Тамбовской области на примере АПК региона. Доказывается закономерность и необходимость нового этапа модернизации, но его невозможность в условиях современной социально-экономической и политической системы. Данная книга предназначена для широкого круга читателей, интересующихся вопросами развития России. Полезна для специалистов в области государственного управления, экономических и региональных исследований, а также в области инвестиционного анализа.