Elections

Between 01 July 2013 and 27 July 2013, Media Matters International collected 550 newspaper reports related to the national election held 28 July 2013 in Cambodia.  It is often assumed that media coverage of elections in Asian countries  is distorted in favor of the governing party, who may control or influence the media. By comparing those items that mentioned Prime Minister Hun Sen and / or opposition leader Sam Rainsy, this report aims to measure various types of media freedom.

Although the 2014-16 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) projects a cut in federal spending by almost 10% next year, we should not be surprised to witness the government deviating from any fiscal commitments if electioneering takes precedence over macroeconomic prudence. In response, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will have to reiterate its commitment to tight monetary policy, guided by the likelihood of a fiscal overshoot in 2014. the combination of depressed revenues and higher discretionary expenditure will continue to deteriorate Nigeria’s fiscal profile, exerting pressure on the currency and prompting the CBN to continue to drawdown on its foreign reserves. As a result, entering 2014 with weaker fiscal and external buffers does not bode well for confidence in a Nigerian economy tarnished by political uncertainty, particularly if we are to witness the effects of a renewed sell-off cycle in the event that the Federal Reserve effectively decides to start tapering its asset-purchase programme next January.

Confronted with internal dissent and a unified opposition, the electoral fortunes of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have arguably begun to wane ahead of the 2015 polls. This comes at a time when the urge to implement structural reforms is likely to be undermined by political jockeying; with the PDP’s internal wrangling likely to undermine its credibility as a consolidated opposition gains momentum. Amid rising discontent over the government’s mismanagement of the insurgency in the north, rising youth unemployment and prevalent power shortages, the PDP’s schisms are likely to detract the government’s efforts to build consensus over crucial reforms.

In spite of compelling calls for postponement, the Malian interim authorities have remained firm on their commitment to hold presidential elections on Sunday 28 July. Pressured by the agendas of its international donors, the Traoré administration has struggled to prepare for a hastily organized poll. Despite the recent deployment of the U.N. Stabilization Mission, looming security threats prevail whilst an estimated 500,000 Malians remain displaced amid difficulties in distributing the biometric ID cards required for voting. As a result of prevalent technical deficiencies, the elections are likely to suffer from low voter turnout. This may undermine the legitimacy of the outcome and potentially propel a new cycle of instability at the heart of a region plagued by weak governance and armed insurgencies.

Oprindelig  publiceret hos Afrika360.dk i 2013. Det er en ganske hurtig analyse af Ghanas Højesterets afgørelse, hvor de støttede Præsident Mahama, at han vandt valget i 2013. Den beskriver også hvordan den tabende part og dennes supportere modtog dommen.

Sagen startede d. 16. april, og sluttede d. 29. august, 2013.

Although they agree that economics and elections are intertwined, theories of economic voting disagree on the policy focus (on positions taken or outcomes achieved) and time horizon (retrospective or prospective) that guides voters’ decisions. Most research on these debates looks at the considerations voters weigh. Instead, I explore the types of economic voting that candidates encourage through their campaign appeals. Content-coded advertising data from the 2004 congressional elections show that appeals generally tend to focus on policy positions and on the past or present. Consistent with predictions from emphasis allocation theory, strategic incentives and electoral context shape the exact mix of economic appeals campaigns make. When aiming to boost their own candidacy, politicians tend to ask voters to think about more unifying future economic outcomes; when aiming to hinder their opponent’s, they ask voters to think about past policy positions. In districts experiencing worsening economic conditions, voters are exposed to more information about policy outcomes; in districts where the incumbent is ideologically “out of step”, they hear more about policy positions. Studies that seek to evaluate competing theories of economic voting are likely to draw misleading conclusions if they treat the information environment as a homogeneous constant: campaigns in different districts, facing different strategic incentives, encourage significantly different types of economic voting.

Two yardsticks exist by which we can measure Indonesia’s democratic transition. The first is the this year’s presidential election; the second applies to Indonesia’s macro-level democratic transitions in pursuance of a viable state-citizen compact. In Papua, both of these measurements produce troubling results.

This paper explores recent advances in experimental methodology to analyze elite behavior. Using an email experiment conducted in the context of the Brazilian 2008 municipal elections, we studied whether candidates target “swing”or “core” voters during campaigns. Candidates from all parties – 1,000 candidates in all – were contacted by randomly generated citizens who identified themselves as either core or swing voters. Additionally, we randomized senders’ past voting behavior and their gender. To identify the baseline answer rate, we employed a placebo treatment with no reference to the elections. Our results show that Brazilian candidates target any sender as long as she identifies herself as a potential voter. Within this general finding, models with city-specific fixed effects indicate that Brazilian politicians tend to target core voters. The paper contributes to the general experimental literature by providing an easily replicable design that can test the behavior of elite interaction with the public. At the same time, the paper extends the literature on core versus swing voters by providing an empirical test that can shed light on the effects of a specific political environment (type of election, voting rule, and party structure), and how it affects the relationship between candidates and voters during elections.

LIKE A RAVAGING MONSTER, HIDDEN UNDER A THICK RAIN FOREST,MALPRACTICES KEEP DEVOURING THE NIGERIAN ELECTORAL PROCESS.
ELECTIONS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A TEST OF COMPETENCE FOR CONTESTANT AND A POWERFUL PLATFORM FOR THE ELECTORATES
IN NIGERIA ELECTORAL MALPRACTICES KEEPS CONTAMINATING THE WATERS OF GOOD LEADERSHIP AND PEACE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW DO CAN WE HANDLE THIS ISSUE?

Raksts pēta, kā informanti saprot un kā tālāk izmanto politiķu runas, reklāmas un žurnālistu veidotos vēlēšanu kampaņas tekstus. Kvalitatīvā pētījumu metode galvenokārt balstās uz 24 dziļo interviju analīzi, kas ļauj secināt, ka uztvērumam piemīt sarežģīts, individuāli niansēts raksturs. Pētījums norāda uz konkurējošu diskursu līdzāspastāvēšanu un atvērtu to interpretāciju, tomēr atsevišķiem vēstījumiem piemīt lielāka ietekme. Kā secināts pētījumā, lielāku ietekmi bauda tieša/netieša pieredze un politiskā reklāma. Pētījumā arī atklāts, ka žurnālistikas teksti nav izrādījušies spēcīgi un tos var viegli pārspēt konkurējošie diskursi.

This essay considers whether there are incentives in the BiH electoral and political system that promote a relationship based on accountability between the electorate and the elected, and whether it is likely that a country that purports to be hungry for reform and progress, and tired of the same old faces in politics, can or will demonstrate this interest through their choices in the general elections in October. Why does it seem like every election in BiH is meant to be “pivotal,” while in reality little seems to change?