Food Prices

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. The innovations of the present paper are estimates of monthly (i.e. seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for four staple crops: wheat, soybeans, corn and rice. We focus on the impact of (expected) crop prices, oil and fertilizer prices and market risks as main determinants for farmers’ decisions on how to allocate their land. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. Such aggregate estimates are also valuable to verify whether involved country-specific estimations add up to patterns that are apparent in the aggregate international data. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.25; price volatility tends to reduce acreage response of some crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of the essence for acreage response: The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.                               

Bu kısa değerlendirmede, 2011'de Fransa'nın başkanlığında yapılan/yapılacak G20 çalışma ve toplantıları için Fransa tarafından öngörülen gündem öncelikleri, özellikle Türkiye'nin perspektifinden değerlendirilmiştir. Özetle, bir gündem maddesi olarak, "gıda ve enerji emtiası fiyatlarındaki aşırı dalgalanmaların önlenmesi" konusundaki çabalara Türkiye'nin de aktif biçimde katılmasının önemi vurgulanmıştır. Ayrıca, ekonomik aktörlerin "aşırı-risk alma" davranışlarının dizginlenmesine yönelik uluslararası çabalara da, ekonomik ve finansal krizlerin önlenebilmesi amacıyla yoğun destek verilmesi gerektiği üzerinde durulmuştur.

The aim of this study is to analyse the price developments and to compare national macroeconomic policies in response to the consumer prices that started to soar in 2007 across the European Neighbourhood Policy countries, the other Barcelona countries, Russia, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the euro area. The analyses focus primarily on ag-flation, but we analyse also the capital inflows in view of income levels in the EU's neighbour countries. The analyses unambiguously show that food inflation was pushing up total inflation, even despite the provision of food subsidies by national authorities.

World food prices are now even higher than their peak just before the global crisis. During periods of high commodity prices, North African and Middle Eastern governments have a long tradition of subsidising food and fuel products. But this column shows that food price inflation and consequently subsidies were also high during periods when global commodity prices were falling. Now these countries have an opportunity to correct this.

This paper examined the importance of household and economic contextual factors as determinants of ethnic disparities in adolescent body mass index (BMI). Individual-level data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 for the years 1997 through 2000 were combined with economic contextual data on food prices, outlet density and median household income. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method was used to examine the factors that could help explain ethnic disparities in BMI. Ethnic differences in household demographic, parental socioeconomic status (SES), and economic contextual factors explained the majority of the male black-white (63%), male Hispanic-white (78%) and female Hispanic-white (62%) BMI gaps but less than one half of the female black-white BMI gap (44%). We found that adding the economic contextual factors increased the explained portion of the ethnic BMI gap for both female and male adolescents: the economic contextual factors explained 28% and 38% of the black-white and Hispanic-white BMI gaps for males and 13% and 8% of the black-white and Hispanic-white BMI gaps for females, respectively. Parental SES was more important in explaining the Hispanic-white BMI gap than the black-white BMI gap for both genders, whereas neighborhood economic contextual factors were more important in explaining the male BMI gap than the female BMI gap for both black-white and Hispanic-white ethnic disparities. A significantly large portion of the ethnic BMI gap, however, remained unexplained between black and white female adolescents.

Taxes and subsidies are increasingly being considered as potential policy instruments to incentivize consumers to improve their food and beverage consumption patterns and related health outcomes. This study provided a systematic review of recent U.S. studies on the price elasticity of demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fast food, and fruits and vegetables, as well as the direct associations of prices/taxes with body weight outcomes. Based on the recent literature, the price elasticity of demand for SSBs, fast food, fruits and vegetables was estimated to be −1.21, −0.52, −0.49 and −0.48, respectively. The studies that linked soda taxes to weight outcomes showed minimal impacts on weight; however, they were based on existing state-level sales taxes that were relatively low. Higher fast-food prices were associated with lower weight outcomes particularly among adolescents, suggesting that raising prices would potentially impact weight outcomes. Lower fruit and vegetable prices were generally found to be associated with lower body weight outcomes among both low-income children and adults, suggesting that subsidies that would reduce the cost of fruits and vegetables for lower-socioeconomic populations may be effective in reducing obesity. Pricing instruments should continue to be considered and evaluated as potential policy instruments to address public health risks.

Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents.

World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations–which compiles prices for other major food categories–has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.