Pretty much always, if someone tells you not to vote, they are giving you bad advice. If you live in California and leave the recall line blank, you are partly disenfranchising yourself and are making a mistake.
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It's self-destructive more than self-interested. Pretty decent chance Newsom gets recalled. Democrats could potentially keep the seat if they urged their voters to consolidate behind an alternative Democrat but instead they're telling them not to vote on the replacement!https://twitter.com/awprokop/status/1429852984259842053 …
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To be clear, this *might* be in the best interest of Newsom—on the unproven and but at least vaguely plausible notion that voters might be more likely to vote "yes" on the recall if there's another D to vote for—but it's likely not in the best interests of the Democratic Party.
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After all, the DIRECT effect of this strategy is that it's MUCH more likely a Republican replaces Newsom, conditional upon the recall succeeding. You'd have to be VERY confident that this strategy makes the recall less likely to succeed to outweigh that.
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If, for instance, this strategy increases Newsom's chances of winning the recall from 70% to 75%, but reduces the Democrats' chance of winning the replacement race from 50% to 10%, the chance of ending up with an R governor rises from 15% to 22.5%.
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It's more harmful IMO if lukewarm D's show up and vote for recall to get their preferred candidate than if they don't vote at all.
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If you were around during the last recall you would know why they are doing this. It was a mess last time. Vote no on the recall but vote for Bustamante confused a lot of voters.
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Nate, you are off on this one…
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