With all the consternation around bond yields and energy prices — topped off with new data showing potential cracks in the artificial intelligence trade — Wall Street could sure use some positive news. The current bull market turns 4 on Monday. On Oct. 12, 2022, the S & P 500 hit a bear market closing low of 3,577.03. Since then, the benchmark index has soared more than 115%, reaching another all-time high just this week. Barring a market crash Friday, next week will mark the seventh time since 1957 that a bull market has continued for four consecutive years, data from Truist Wealth shows. What's promising, the bank found, is that bull runs that reach that age tend to continue. Truist found that a bull market averages a 12% return during its fifth year, with the median gain sitting at 15%. "The weight of the evidence remains supportive as the bull market enters its fifth year. Continued economic growth, resilient corporate profits and a meaningful reset in valuations provide a solid foundation for maintaining a constructive stance," wrote Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist. Indeed, corporate earnings grew sharply in the first two quarters of 2026 — and analysts expect third-quarter profits were also strong. FactSet data shows analysts forecast S & P 500 earnings expanded by nearly 30% year over year during Q3. That would mark the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth topping 25%. The economy also continues to grow steadily, despite rising energy prices and the possibility of tighter central bank monetary policy. "History points to the potential for additional upside, though not without periodic setbacks," Lerner wrote. "Pullbacks along the path higher have been common, with the average maximum drawdown during year five of 14% (median: 11%)." But he added, "bull markets have typically generated their strongest gains near the beginning and end of the cycle, with more moderate returns during the middle stages. The challenge is that a cycle's position can only be identified with certainty in hindsight."
