Nikola Jurkovic

@nikolaj2030

AI safety researcher @METR_Evals

Joined September 2023

439 Following

2,885 Followers

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Nikola Jurkovic
@nikolaj2030
Oct 6
Unless there is a global moratorium on AI progress, this set of predictions seems extremely wrong. You think that we'll achieve RSI and all we'll get on the other side is 1.5% added to GDP?
Mustafa Suleyman
@mustafasuleyman
Oct 6
Article
AI won't take your job anytime soon. In 10 yrs, only 5% of what humans do will be replaced by AI
This is the prediction Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu makes in the first issue of The Humanist Review, our new magazine exploring the future of AI, published by MAI. He argues we need to stop
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Nikola Jurkovic
@nikolaj2030
Oct 1
It must be scary to be an undergrad (or even younger) and not know whether you will ever have a career. I am not so sure in the second paragraph in Cas' tweet. My best guess is that many young people will never have a career.
Cas (Stephen Casper)
@StephenLCasper
Sep 30
It seems like a hard time to be an undergrad concerned with making AI go better. I have talked with a lot of undergrads at several university AI safety clubs in the past month. Consistently across universities, there is a general shared sense of undergraduate dread about next-gen
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Nikola Jurkovic
@nikolaj2030
Sep 9
The "extreme" scenarios here are not nearly extreme enough because they only assume knowledge work will get automated. Physical labor could get automated by 2030 as well. The size of the economy could be 10x what it is today.
Anthropic
@AnthropicAI
Sep 9
Anthropic’s Economics team is sharing a new model of how AI might affect economic growth, jobs, wages, and more by 2030. Explore the scenarios, tell us what you think will happen, and see how your answers compare to more than 10,000 Americans. anthropic.com/institute/econ…
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Nikola Jurkovic
@nikolaj2030
Sep 9
This is a common view in the AI community. I place the probability around 50%.
Evan Hubinger
@EvanHub
Sep 9
Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.
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Jacob Coxon
@hilbertspaess
Sep 9
The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear
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Nikola Jurkovic
@nikolaj2030
Sep 8
Some people say "Pausing AI development now would be counterproductive because it will make it harder to pause when it really matters." I disagree. I think pausing/pacing the frontier is less of "an action that you can only do once and thus have to conserve until dangerously
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