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The Tennis-Serve Election: An Excerpt from the 2026 Almanac of American Politics

By Louis Jacobson The following is an excerpt from the introductory essay to the 2026 Almanac of American Politics, which has been published after each election going back to 1972. The Almanac includes 2,200 pages with updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50 states and governors, and much more. Jacobson…

Vote Above Replacement: Trump vs. Harris

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2024 Baselines: How the States Have Shifted

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What Happened and What’s Next after the 2024 Elections?

The 2024 elections were going to humble one party, and voters called Democrats to the carpet. It will take days to get final results and probably weeks before there’s a full understanding of what happened, but there are more than a few points that can be made in the wake of elections. History Making Donald Trump will be…

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

It’s never wise to jump to conclusions based on any single poll. But it would be foolish to ignore results from a quality pollster.  Ann Selzer shocked the political world on Saturday evening with a poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Iowa, 47 percent to 44 percent. Trump…

2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Wisconsin

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7 Initial Thoughts After the Vice Presidential Debate

I used to be a debate skeptic. I was skeptical that debates changed the trajectory of elections. But after President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in one of the most consequential debates in history on June 27 and considering the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is incredibly close, the vice presidential…

Trump, Harris Face Off in Philadelphia with the White House on the Line

The first, and potentially only, debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is in the books. While it will be at least a few days or more to know how the Philadelphia faceoff played with voters, there are at least a handful of key points and initial takeaways. (And this is after watching the…

Presidential Update: RFK Jr. Exits the Race

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2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona

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