Some well-known companies may not be able to expand their margins, according to Trivariate Research. Trivariate founder Adam Parker screened for stocks with a bottom-up consensus projection of at least 1% of gross margin contraction in the next fiscal year. The list yielded several megacap tech stocks and other household names. The stakes are high for these stocks if that outcome materializes. Firms that have seen more than 100 basis points of gross margin contraction have underperformed their industry group average by more than 15% over the last year, Parker found. That marks the worst performance for this cohort in around a quarter of a century, he added. "Management teams are largely aware that they need to articulate to investors a plausible growth margin expansion path," Parker wrote to clients in a Sunday note. Here's 10 of the names that made the list: Parker found Apple could see a 1.4% decline in its margins. Apple is at a turning point, with CEO Tim Cook stepping down from the role on Monday after 15 years. Shares of Apple have jumped more than 16% in 2026, on track for their fourth straight winning year. While most analysts polled by LSEG have a buy rating, the typical price target suggests that the "Magnificent Seven" stock can only rise less than 2% in the next 12 months. Beyond megacap tech, Parker said Oracle 's margins could decline by more than 6%. Oracle is expected to next report earnings in mid September. Oracle shares have plunged more than 23% in 2026, which puts it on pace to snap a three-year winning streak and mark its biggest annual slide since 2001. But the Street anticipates a big rebound ahead: The average analyst has a buy rating and price target implying about 70% in upside, according to LSEG. ORCL YTD mountain Oracle in 2026 Outside of tech, the firm found that Altria Group is set to have its margin shrink by more than 14%. The tobacco producer's stock has jumped almost 20% this year, outperforming the broader market and on pace for a third straight winning year. After that run, the typical analyst only expects to stock to add about 2% in the year ahead, per LSEG. The majority of analysts have a hold rating on the stock.
